More than 38 million people in England live in areas that are recording virtually no new cases of Covid, an analysis by The Times has shown.
Seven in ten people live in areas where a maximum of two infections were reported during the most recent week for which data is available.
Scientific advisers to the government said the figures signalled that the schedule for lifting lockdown measures remained on track. Ministers are expected to meet next week to decide whether the next step will go ahead as planned on May 17.
Cinemas and indoor soft-play centres are expected to reopen, along with the largest outdoor venues, though attendances would be capped. The rule of six people or two households would apply for people meeting inside homes.
• A study found that vaccinated people were up to 50 per cent less likely to pass on the coronavirus.
• Spain said that it would reopen its borders for British tourists in June with the use of a digital health certificate which Downing Street said was being developed. Spain also expects to be on the government’s “green” list of countries by then, meaning that holidaymakers would not have to enter quarantine on their return.
• Over-40s will be invited to book their jabs by the end of this week.
• No 10 said that Britain did not have “surplus doses” of vaccines to send to India, which is dealing with a sharp rise in infections.
• Seventeen deaths within 28 days of a positive test for coronavirus were reported yesterday. In the past week 16,325 people had a confirmed positive test result, a fall of 5.8 per cent compared with the previous seven days.
Official figures published today show that an estimated 7 in 10 adults had antibodies against coronavirus in the week ending April 11, up from 54.9 per cent two weeks previously.
For the most vulnerable age groups, the percentage of adults with antibodies was higher than 85 per cent, the ONS said. The figure was 6 in 10 in Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland.
The Times analysis shows that lockdown measures and vaccinations have driven cases of Covid-19 to very low numbers across much of the country.
Officials split England into 6,800 areas, each with an average population of about 8,200, for the reporting of Covid-19 cases. To protect privacy, Public Health England (PHE) does not provide detailed data for an area when fewer than three cases are reported in a week. Some 4,819 areas, with a population of more than 38 million, have had data suppressed, indicating that they reported two, one or no cases for the week to April 22. In 20 of 314 local authorities every reporting area fell into this category.
Dr Mike Tildesley of the University of Warwick, who sits in the government’s Spi-M panel of disease modellers, said: “Things are very much moving in the right direction.”
He added: “The road map for relaxation is on track but we need to ensure we monitor it at every stage as the country reopens to evaluate the impact of unlocking society upon cases, hospital admissions and deaths. The vaccination campaign continues to be successful, so I hope that the road map can proceed on schedule. But it is really important we monitor the data over the next few weeks.”
Experts warned that in some areas the epidemic was not as well controlled. Professor Alastair Grant of the University of East Anglia said: “The virus is retreating to small areas, many of which are deprived inner-city areas where rates remained high last summer — Leicester, Bradford, Sheffield etc. And these are often areas where vaccination rates are low.”
According to the analysis, the areas in which Covid is most widespread are Leicester, Kettering, Slough and Manchester. In those places more than 75 per cent of the population live in areas which had more than three cases.
There are significant differences between regions. In the South West 85 per cent of people live in areas with fewer than three new cases a week. In Yorkshire and Humber it is 43 per cent.
Professor Mark Jit, of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, who sits on the Spi-M panel, said: “The chance of someone getting Covid in most of England today is pretty low. However, there are also some parts with outbreaks. These can spread rapidly unless we can remain vigilant.”
The number of people in hospital with Covid-19 has fallen by 23 per cent in the past week, with admissions down 21 per cent. The number of hospital patients has fallen to 4 per cent of the peak recorded on January 18.
Deaths involving Covid-19 in England and Wales have fallen by 97 per cent since the peak of the second wave, according to figures released yesterday by the Office for National Statistics. In the week ending April 9 Covid was mentioned on 266 death certificates. The number of daily deaths has not exceeded 100 since March 13. In January the seven-day average reached 1,285 deaths a day.
Separate figures from the ONS show that the total number of deaths registered in England and Wales has remained below the pre-pandemic average for the sixth consecutive week.
